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Chapter Ten: Public Opinion
Politicians and the media often point to polls or surveys as examples of public opinion on issues. In many cases, however, polls and surveys more closely reflect the opinions and methods of their sponsors than they do any actual "will of the public." For a variety of reasons, determining what "the people" want or believe is not as simple as the final poll numbers might imply.
Although scientific methods of polling have greatly reduced methodological errors in polling, detecting stable or "informed" opinions at the individual level is still difficult. People construct attitudes based on their own personal experiences as well as the indirect experiences passed on through socialization. Most individuals have little reason to construct organized, well-informed political ideologies, primarily because they could spend their time better doing other things. For this reason, they are ambivalent on most issues and can shift their stated positions because of small changes in survey wording or framing.
Aggregate public opinion, on the other hand, seems to be much more stable and intelligible than individual public opinion. The stability of public opinion can be attributed in large part to the mediating role of opinion leaders, who serve as easy cue-givers and information sources for the unengaged public. The stable, shared consensus of basic political values helps make politics possible, while the policy disagreements within public opinion make politics necessary.
After reading this chapter, you should understand…
- how different types of polls can measure public opinion differently
- the relationship between public attitudes and public opinion
- how pollsters can articulate public opinion just by measuring it
- how individuals acquire opinions
- why Americans generally tend to ignore politics
- how strategic politicians can use framing to advance their agenda
- the relative stability and coherence of individual versus aggregate public opinion and the sources of stability and coherence in opinion
- how demographics tend to affect survey responses
- why a large majority of voters chose to overlook President Bill Clinton's personal failings and support him during the Monica Lewinsky affair, and why most Republicans in Congress chose to impeach him despite this support
- why Americans often regard politicians as a "suspect class"
- where Americans stand on the goals and means of major policy areas
- whether leaders and institutions "control" public opinion
- How did popular support for the war in Iraq change over time? How did the changes for Republicans, Democrats, and independents differ?
- In 1936 the Literary Digest ran a "straw poll" that mistakenly predicted that Franklin Roosevelt would be defeated in his reelection attempt. What factors undermine the accuracy of such polls? What factors can undermine the accuracy of even "scientific" polling?
- How have modern techniques for molding and measuring public opinion contributed to the nationalization of American politics?
- Do voters think in terms of ideologies? Are voters' attitudes generally consistent? If not, what explains the inconsistency?
- Given the mechanisms through which politicians and the media can influence it, does public opinion really matter?
- Since aggregate opinion is simply the combination of all individual opinions, how can it be more stable and coherent than individual opinion?
- What are opinion leaders? Why might typical individuals rely on the statements or positions of these opinion leaders in forming their own opinions? What are the limits on how much these opinion leaders can control public opinion?
- How does the American public agree or disagree on basic political values and policies? How does this agreement or disagreement make politics possible or necessary?
- In what areas do men and women differ most in their opinions? Differ least?
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