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Chapter Ten: Public Opinion
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Pundits Declare the Race Over
New York Times, Jim Rutenberg, May 8, 2008
“Very early this morning, after many voters had already gone to sleep, the conventional wisdom of the elite political pundit class that resides on television shifted hard, and possibly irretrievably, against Senator Hillary Clinton’s continued viability as a presidential candidate.”
Reporters and news organizations love conflict and controversy (see Selecting the News, pp. 560-561). Over the last six months, the race for the Democratic presidential nomination between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton has supplied both in ample quantity. The media, for example, endlessly recycled remarks by Reverend Jeremiah Wright—a textbook case of pack journalism (see The Beat, pp. 559-560). The results of primary elections in Indiana and North Carolina this week have started a new media stampede. This New York Times story observes how reporters and pundits are rushing to declare the race over. Feeding frenzies like these, while predictable, can be unwitting causes and consequences of more durable frames (see Framing, pp. 395-397). In this case, reporters are reinforcing the view of Clinton as a hopeless candidate who refuses to abide by the rules.
Beer Battle Brewing in Alabama
Los Angeles Times, Stephanie Simon, Mar. 10, 2008
“Two dozen guys are crowded into a basement, talking loudly over Triscuits, when Scott Oberman breaks the law. In defiance of Alabama Criminal Code 28-4-20, he pours his buddy a beer.”
Though the logic of nationalization has expanded the scope of federal activity in recent decades (see Shared Federalism, pp. 82-84), state governments do get the last word on certain public policy issues. For example, the repeal of the Eighteenth Amendment in 1933 shifted responsibility for regulating alcoholic beverages back to the states. Responding to the religious preferences of local constituencies (see Religion, pp. 414-415), many states levied restrictions on alcohol content. Today, recreational brewers and upscale bootleggers in Alabama and other states are attempting to eliminate Prohibition Era restrictions. This L.A. Times article finds that religious groups are running into the same problems that doomed prohibition on a national scale (see Punishing the Wets at the Polls, p. 511).
Bush Acknowledges Economic Uncertainty
Washington Post, Jeannine Aversa, Feb. 11, 2008
The expectations attached to the office of the presidency far exceed its legal powers. Nowhere is this more evident than on economic issues, where modern presidents are assigned credit or blame for the state of the U.S. economy. The president’s greater role in economic affairs is partly attributable to framing (see Framing, pp. 395-397). The media produces stories about economic hardship and associate it with presidential policies or, in a few cases, the absence of initiative. Thus, economic performance is a frequent component of the president’s legislative agenda (see Modern Presidents as Legislators, p. 280) and economic advisors have become a permanent fixture in the Executive Office of the President (see Executive Office of the President, p. 291). This Washington Post story features George W. Bush in his by now familiar role as economic troubleshooter.
2.8 Million Reasons to Run Hard
Los Angeles Times, Phil Willon, Jan. 22, 2008
“Hillary Rodham Clinton has munched on tacos in East Los Angeles and Barack Obama has joked around on Southern California's top Spanish-language radio program ‘Piolín por la Mañana,’ both carefully orchestrated attempts to connect with wavering, undecided Latino voters like stay-at-home mother-of-two Denise Mendoza.”
The diversity of the U.S. electorate requires presidential candidates to be all things to all people. Even a staunch anti-slavery man like Abraham Lincoln would tailor his remarks to audiences along the campaign trail. Since modern technology makes it difficult to reconcile contradictory statements, attempts to appeal to different groups typically take symbolic form (see Getting Out the Message, pp. 437-442). Last week, for example, Democratic hopeful Hillary Clinton attended services in a black church in South Carolina and ate tacos with Latino supporters in California. Republican Rudy Giuliani, who supports making English the official language, aired commercials in Spanish. This L.A. Times article suggests that Latino voters are looking beyond symbolic appeals. With opinions shaped by both ethnic concerns and economic status (see Race and Ethnicity, pp. 411-413), the strength of Latinos in key primary states are forcing candidates to take unpopular positions on issues like immigration and healthcare.
Cable Channel Nods to Ratings and Leans Left
New York Times, Jacques Steinberg, Nov. 6, 2007
“Riding a ratings wave from “Countdown With Keith Olbermann,” a program that takes strong issue with the Bush administration, MSNBC is increasingly seeking to showcase its nighttime lineup as a welcome haven for viewers of a similar mind.”
Professional standards dictate that journalists report the news in full and without bias. However, most journalists work for private companies interested in the bottom line. Like other products, political news must be sold. In the past, television news shows crafted stories to appeal to a national audience (see Content and Form, pp. 549-550). With the proliferation of cable networks, political news is increasingly packaged for niche audiences. This is accomplished by combining news and entertainment (see Consumer Preferences, pp. 550-552). Use of particular frames (see Framing, pp. 395-397) can be equally effective in selling the news. This New York Times article finds cable network MSNBC catching up to Fox News among younger viewers via its use of liberal commentary criticizing the Bush Administration.
As War Dragged On, Coverage Tone Weighed Heavily on Anchors
Washington Post, Howard Kurtz, Oct. 8, 2007
“Charlie Gibson is a product of the Vietnam War era. When he was a television reporter in Lynchburg, Va., he had driven to Washington on weekends to march in antiwar demonstrations. And he had lost friends in that jungle war.”
Reporters are crucial intermediaries between public officials and agencies, and the public. They decide which events constitute news (see Reporters and Their News Organizations, pp. 558-561). Reporters also influence how public officials and issues are framed (see Framing, pp. 395-397). In selecting the news, reporters favor controversy and negativity. Their own beliefs and experiences, however, can be equally important. This article by the Washington Post looks at how network anchors opted to cover the Iraq War. In deciding what to call the conflict and how to frame its progress, reporters attended to a variety of economic, political, and personal considerations.
Most in Poll Want War Funding Cut
Washington Post, Jon Cohen and Dan Balz, Oct. 2, 2007
“Most Americans oppose fully funding President Bush's $190 billion request for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, and a sizable majority support an expansion of a children's health insurance bill he has promised to veto, putting Bush and many congressional Republicans on the wrong side of public opinion on upcoming foreign and domestic policy battles.”
With the advent of scientific polling, national politicians are able to acquire systematic information on the opinions of ordinary Americans (see What is Public Opinion?, pp. 384-387). While reading the tea leaves of election results, mass protests, and other haphazard expressions of public sentiments is an inexact science, opinion polls generate reliable information on citizens’ attitudes, ideologies, and core values (see The Origins of Public Opinion, pp. 288-390). This Washington Post article summarizes the results from a recent opinion poll that suggests the public has detailed beliefs on the direction of U.S. domestic and foreign policies. These results are the kind of information that Congress and the president usually find it “prudent to heed” as they indicate which courses of action are most likely to garner public support.
In Colorado, Drilling Some Holes in the Republican Base
Washington Post, Karl Vick, Sept. 16
"The Bush administration's aggressive drive to promote oil and gas drilling on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains has sparked growing anger here among traditional Republican constituents who say that the stepped-up push for energy development is sullying some of the country's most majestic landscape."
The philosopher Edmund Burke defined the political party as a group of men united behind an abstract principle. Parties in the U.S. system, however, are best described as diverse coalitions organized by political expediency as much as ideological consistency (see Expediency Persists, p. 501). Nonetheless, party labels continue to serve as valuable cues that inform voters' choices, with Democrats and Republicans staking out distinct issue positions (see Party Differences, pp. 493-496). These positions are carefully crafted to appeal to issue publics-subsets of the population directly affected by a policy (see Opinion Leadership, pp. 400-402). Pleasing vocal coalition partners without alienating the party's traditional base can be tricky. This Washington Post story describes how the Bush Administration's aggressive energy policies have put Republicans at odds with some of its core supporters in western states.
Discontent Over Iraq Increasing, Poll Finds
Washington Post, Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, June 5, 2007
"Growing frustration with the performance of the Democratic Congress, combined with widespread public pessimism over President Bush's temporary troop buildup in Iraq, has left satisfaction with the overall direction of the country at its lowest point in more than a decade, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll."
The link between public opinion and public policy is complex (see Public Opinion, p. 416). Self-interested politicians attempt to stay ahead of public opinion, strategically shifting their positions to satisfy the voters who employ them. Nonetheless, on the Iraq War, the Bush Administration recently decided to redouble rather than pull back U.S. military forces. This decision was carried out in the context of growing public dissatisfaction, as reflected in Republican losses in the recent midterm elections. The substance of public opinion consists of more than citizens’ feelings about particular policy issues. Trust in government can be equally important; polls have found that public trust has declined over the past few decades (see Politicians: A Suspect Class, p. 404-406). This Washington Post poll finds that satisfaction with the direction the country is headed in has reached a low point. With public opinion against prevailing policy and approval of the president and Congress below 50 percent, it is a difficult time to be a politician in Washington.
GOP's Base Helps Keep Unity on Iraq
Washington Post, Jonathan Weisman, April 30, 2007
"With public opinion tilting firmly toward ending U.S. involvement in the war in Iraq, Rep. Wayne T. Gilchrest (R-Md.) might have expected praise for his votes that would start to bring the troops home. Instead, at town hall meetings on the Eastern Shore, the former Marine and Vietnam combat veteran has been called a coward and a traitor."
The 2004 and 2006 elections were unusual in a country where few voters pay attention to foreign policy issues. Unless U.S. troops are directly engaged overseas, public opinion on foreign policy tends to be highly responsive to elite opinion leadership (see Foreign Policy, pp. 410-411). On the Iraq War, however, this Washington Post article finds that voters are leading elected officials, not vice versa. Despite lagging public support among Democrats and Independents, Republicans remain solidly behind the president's war policies. Polarization among voters is contributing to the extreme partisanship in Congress, where an increasing number of bills are being decided along party lines (see Increased Partisanship, pp. 230-233).
Recalling Struggle for Civil Rights, Democrats Battle for Black Votes
New York Times, Jeff Zeleny, Mar. 4, 2007
“Representative John Lewis, whose political career grew out of the civil rights movement, had longed for the day he could vote for someone that he believed could become the nation's first black president.”
Differences between blacks and whites on issues like affirmative action, federal government intervention, and the death penalty represent the sharpest divide in public opinion between major groups in the U.S. (see Race and Ethnicity, pp. 411-413). The views of a majority of black voters on these issues are closer to the positions of the Democratic than Republican Party. Blacks vote overwhelmingly for Democrats and are a crucial block of that party’s coalition. The origins of this relationship date back to the Civil Rights Movement of the 1960s, when Democratic presidents supported high-profile legislation like the Civil Rights Act of 1964 and Voting Rights Act of 1965 (see The Civil Rights Movement, pp. 133-143). This recent New York Times story illustrates the continuing importance of both black voters and the civil rights issue to Democratic Party politics. The party’s 2008 presidential nominee is likely to be the candidate best able to connect with black voters.
Confidence in Bush Leadership at All-Time Low, Poll Finds
Washington Post, Dan Balz and Jon Cohen, Jan. 22, 2007
“President Bush will deliver his State of the Union address on Tuesday at the weakest point of his presidency, facing deep public dissatisfaction over his Iraq war policies and eroding confidence in his leadership, according to a new Washington Post-ABC News poll.”
Public opinion, according to V.O. Key consists of “those opinions held by private persons which governments find it prudent to heed” (see What Is Public Opinion? pp. 384-387). Governments attend to public opinion because it influences which candidates get elected and what they are able to do once in office. In 2004, for example, 88 percent of those who believed invading Iraq was worth the cost voted for Bush; 84 percent who believed it was not voted for Kerry (see Public Opinion, pp. 381-384). The ability of presidents to induce cooperation from other elected officials depends on their standing with the public (see Going Public, pp. 283-290). This Washington Post-ABC News poll finds public confidence in President Bush is at an all-time low, suggesting that he will have difficulty building support in Congress for his Iraq and other policies.
Tolerance for a War’s Death Toll Depends on How You Look at It
Washington Post, Shankar Vedantam, Dec. 18, 2006
“William Boettcher and Michael Cobb have a question for you: What is the exact number of U.S. troops you are willing to see die in Iraq?”
Foreign policy issues, when remote from everyday experience, tend to arouse few passions and receive little attention by most Americans. This changes when U.S. forces are sent into harm’s way (see Foreign Policy, pp. 410-411). The perceived lack of progress in Iraq hurt Republicans in the 2006 congressional elections. Public opinion on foreign policy issues is as susceptible to framing effects as it is on other issues (see Framing, pp. 395-397). War coverage that relentlessly focuses on the costs of conflict, including mounting U.S. casualties, can reduce support for the president’s policies. This Washington Post essay suggests that public opinion about U.S. casualties is complicated, varying according individual perceptions about the rightness of the cause and effectiveness of the campaign, not just the absolute number of deaths.
Republicans Losing The ‘Security Moms’
Washington Post, Jim VandeHei, August 18, 2006
“Married women with children, the ‘security moms’ whose concerns about terrorism made them an essential part of Republican victories in 2002 and 2004, are taking flight from GOP politicians this year in ways that appear likely to provide a major boost for Democrats in the midterm elections, according to polls and interviews.”
The erosion of consensus on security issues since the end of the Cold War has been a major trend in opinion research. This fracturing of opinion reflects the inability of political elites to agree on a framework for U.S. foreign policy (see Foreign Policy, pp. 410-411). The trend is apparent in lagging public support for President Bush’s Iraq policies. This Washington Post story finds that support among married women has declined markedly. Historically, women are more likely to oppose military involvement in foreign conflicts (see Gender, p. 413), though married women tended to vote Republican in 2002 and 2004. With opinion on the war likely to inform both performance and issue voting this fall (see Voter Cues and Shortcuts, pp. 434-435), elected officials have good reason to attend to key demographic groups.
Pain at Pumps May Be Felt at Polls
Washington Post, Peter Whoriskey, April 27, 2006.
“One of the soaring bridges to the beach here is named for longtime Republican congressman E. Clay Shaw Jr., and at its foot is a gas station where drivers on Wednesday were filling up, wincing at the tally and wondering whom to blame.”
The resurgence of party-centered campaigning means that reelection-minded congressional incumbents have to be more in tune than ever to national partisan trends. When the economy goes south, partisans of the incumbent administration seek political cover (see National Politics in Congressional Elections, pp. 218-219). Voters do not possess perfect information on economic performance, but simple cues like inflation and unemployment carry strong signals. This Washington Post article finds that congressional Republicans are facing new voter discontent over increasing gas prices. While the link between any single representative and broad macroeconomic indicators is tenuous at best, a poor economy can hurt congressional incumbents through its effects on aggregate partisanship. The share of those who identify with one party or the other changes with economic conditions, political events, and presidential approval (see Stability of Aggregate Public Opinion, pp. 397-400).
Whites Take Flight on Election Day
Washington Post, Richard Morin, April 14, 2006.
“Bad news for Michael S. Steele, the leading Maryland Republican candidate for Senate in November: The scuttling noise he hears on Election Day could be the sound of tens of thousands of white Republicans crossing over to vote for the Democrat.”
Despite gains in recent elections, minorities continue to be underrepresented in Congress (see Who Serves in Congress?, pp. 220-224). Political analysts have cited a variety of explanations for this, including the lingering effects of historical discrimination and unfavorable redistricting practices. This brief write-up cites a forthcoming article that argues that few blacks are elected to Congress because black candidates are often deserted by white voters from their own party. If true, what explains this cross-over voting? The race of a candidate does not appear among the major factors influencing turnout (see Who Uses the Right to Vote?, pp. 428-433). However, the sharpest differences in public opinion in U.S. politics occur between blacks and whites (see Race and Ethnicity, pp. 411-413). If voters use race as a cue (see Voter Cues and Shortcuts, pp. 435-436), even the entry of a black candidate that disagrees with the views of a majority of black voters might lead some whites to support the opposition.
Candidates’ Face-Off, Morph or Less
Washington Post, Richard Morin, February 28, 2006
“It's not always true that familiarity breeds contempt. An unknown political candidate who bears a passing resemblance to Hillary Rodham Clinton (D-N.Y.) will be liked more than one who doesn't -- even when the candidate is a man.”
Successful candidates for Congress develop appealing messages, cultivate a positive public image, and figure out ways to communicate these to voters (see The Basic Necessities, pp. 437-442). Reaching voters often proves difficult, given that the majority of Americans pays little attention to politics (see Information, pp. 393-397). In the absence of detailed political information, voters rely on cues like party ID and the opinions of those they trust (see Opinion Leadership, pp. 400-402). This article reports on a study that suggests that in addition to these cues, voters infer information from a candidate’s appearance. Some candidates simply look like winners.
U.S. Gives India Applause, Pakistan a Pat on the Back
New York Times, Somini Sengupta, March 5, 2006
“President Bush leaves this region having declared India and Pakistan strategic partners. But his declarations spoke just as loudly of the shifting balance of power in the region, and the world.”
The desire to speak with a single voice in foreign affairs was one argument the Framers used to bolster their case for a single executive. The Constitution gives presidents broad authority to transact diplomatic affairs. Presidents since George Washington have used it to decide whether to recognize foreign governments and, as George W. Bush did this week in India, to conclude international treaties (see Head of State, pp. 266-267). Presidents are the most influential actors on foreign policy issues, but their influence varies according to whether other opinion leaders agree with the White House (see Foreign Policy, pp. 410-411). This article describes Bush’s nuclear deal with India, which Congress must now decide to approve or reject.
The Race Issue Confronts GOP
CQ Weekly, John Cochran, September 19, 2005
“The tragedy that unfolded in New Orleans was not just about poverty.”
Although firmly Democratic in their voting habits, the median African American voter sides more closely with the moral and religiously-related policies of Republican politicians. This has given the latter group some hope of prying a sizable share of these voters from the Democratic party. The recent suffering, of neglected, mostly Black evacuees from the New Orleans' disaster appears to have arrested any shift in Blacks’ party loyalties as television images reinforce the general view among these voters that the Democratic party cares more about their welfare. (See Logic, pp. 411-413)
How DJs Put 500,000 Marchers in Motion
Los Angeles Times, Teresa Watanabe and Hector Bercerra, March 28, 2006.
“He's one of the hottest Spanish-language radio personalities in the nation. So when Los Angeles deejay Eddie Sotelo joined hands with his radio rivals to urge listeners to turn out for a pro-immigrant rally in downtown Los Angeles on Saturday, organizers hoped for a big turnout.”
Demonstrations are a time-honored device for groups that lack insider access (see Outsider Tactics: Altering the Political Forces, pp. 524-526). Their effectiveness depends on media attention; major news organizations ignore all but the most extraordinary of demonstrations. The mass protests taking place in major U.S. cities over the last two weeks in response to a House immigration bill constitute such an extraordinary event. Immigration policies inevitably involve issues of race and ethnicity, where differences in public opinion between major groups are most pronounced (see Race and Ethnicity, pp. 411-413). This article describes how DJs on Spanish-language radio helped coordinate protest activity, thereby propelling the concerns of Latino and immigrant communities onto the national agenda well before more established media outlets picked up the story. This story is indicative of today’s uncertain media environment, which has altered interactions between politicians and the press (see Politician-Press Relations Then and Now, pp. 563-565).
Bush Puts Mine Safety Back on Agenda
Washington Post, Nancy Zuckerbrod, January 21, 2006
“The Bush administration is reviewing safety equipment used in the nation's mines after previously scrapping similar initiatives started by the Clinton administration.”
Studies of the media indicate that the content of news programs can influence the standards people use to evaluate presidents. This phenomenon, known as framing, suggests that the media, in attending to certain issues or events while ignoring others, helps shape the national political agenda (see Framing, pp. 395-397). Recent media coverage of accidents in West Virginia, resulting in the death of more than a dozen mine workers, has focused the public’s attention on workplace safety issues. In the wake of the second accident at Melville, the Bush administration is dusting off several mining safety initiatives proposed during the Clinton administration and placing them back on the agenda.
Events like the Tallmansville accident or Hurricane Katrina underscore the dilemmas of the modern presidency (see Presidents as Strategic Actors, pp. 293-294). Despite the expansion of statutory authority and institutional resources available to modern presidents, the expectations surrounding the office far outstrip the resources of incumbents to meet them. Whether or not the initiatives being proposed by President Bush succeed in boosting mining safety, the attempt illustrates how presidents are compelled to respond to changes in the political environment. Failing to do so often results in political (not to mention social and economic) disaster.
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